The UN Climate Conference concludes - everyone is "waiting for Obama"

Friday 5th December 2008

In the morning, I briefly wrote up my ideas for a successful EU Climate and Energy package. It included the need to auction emission permits, and for a target of 40% cut in EU emissions by 2020 in line with the EU's historical responsibility.

Following this, me and Florent managed to gain access to a closed EU meeting. Of course, we were not supposted to be there, but I noted all information down for the sake of democratic openness and will publish it here. In the LCA debate, the EU were postponing the issue of auctioning. The decision on the Adaptation Fund Board had been described by a UK delegate as a "train smash". The World Bank were apparently acting as a trustee as an "interim measure"! LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) discussions were described by Malta as an "abomination". Malta pointed out we must prevent REDD (Reduction Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) from "following the lousy rules of LULUCF" and "prevent REDD from becoming like LULUCF". We need clarity on the rules because we cannot say to developing countries "we've got bad rules, you need to do better". Australia argued that we "do need action in REDD".

The spokesperson from Australia, who had been invited to the EU meeting, said that Australia was still making the decision on their target, which would be an emissions cut of at least 25% by 2020, and within the 25 - 40% range. The representative from Civil Society, from the US Climate Action Network, expressed concern that France and the US were co-hosting a reception on Thursday to "say goodbye to the outgoing administration" and that this "looked like a parallel process". He was concerned about undue influence of Bush from "beyond the grave". The 'MEN process' was run primarily by the US but France insisted it was still valuable. They appeared to be "waiting" for the new US Administration. However, they expressed relief that members won't be negotiating with the negotiator Jim Connaughton "unless he gets a job in the Obama Adminstration". The EU meeting ended with a mention that Italy would hold the G8 Presidency next year.

I then attended a side event on the 'Post 2012 technology and finance framework' hosted by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, as I had aimed to understand finance at the conference. The speaker said that "international politics is by nature a conservative process". He argued the issue of intellectual property rights needs to be understood. For example, the flexibility of TRIPS could be used to address climate change. The rest of the seminar was not very engaging.

The last side event that I managed to attend was on adaptation. The speaker argued Hurricana Katrina should not have been a surprise, but we discount the future (and the past). He argued that "all societies are in unstable equilbrium... and rest on the strength of early warning systems". For example, who was watching the banks? We seem to spend more time looking at small projects in Africa in order to save a few dollars, than regulating the banks. "Creeping" hazards are especially dangerous, because no government knows how to deal with creeping problems, until they become a crisis. For example, the drying out of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, which could have been prevented.

Finally, we were able to arrange a meeting with the UK's EU Chief negotiator, Ms Droogsba on Friday after an EU meeting had finished. We asked about how the negotiations were going for the EU Climate and Energy package, and she said "not good". They were not moving at all, as nobody wants to proceed now or show their position, before the US policy comes out. The EU package will be decided in January. Everyone seems to be waiting for Obama, and in the interim there was no hope for G20 influence. I asked whether industry lobbying had prevented the auctioning of credits. However, she said there were some positive signs from industry and that the Climate Group and CBI were now supportive of action.

We asked whether there would be an opportunity to move towards concrete policies and measures (such as a carbon tax) rather than 'flexible mechanisms'. However, she said it would be difficult to agree on a tax; the EU had tried it in the 1970's. She admitted the ETS was only half the solution, and would not work on it's own. She praised the new Climate Minister Ed Miliband, and we expressed our enthusiasm about the Climate Bill. Finally we asked whether the "2 degrees of warming" target could be reached. She said it was not sensible to focus on the 2 degree target, it makes people give up. In particular, it won't be achieved so there is not point focusing on it. I came away with the impression she was on-side. However, although she said we need more "positive messages" it was worrying that she believes ultimately the 2 degree target will not be reached. It seems difficult to focus on being "positive" if there will be 2 degrees of warming, and therefore we may hit the climatic tipping point...

The UN Climate Conference Continues...

Wednesday 3rd December

Had a packed day, spending more than 12 hours in the conference centre. The International Youth meeting at the start was exciting as the youth were well organised and cooperative (perhaps even more than the adult delegations). However, the similarity also extends to the amount of bureaucracy in the meetings, and the lack of presence of youth delegates from developing countries.

We printed out our proposal documents after discussion and translation. There was controversy over our proposal that 'per capita' emissions should be included as an additional measure. This issue is very problematic for developing countries since it implies emission cuts at a future date. To be honest, I did not realise that the idea of per capita emission measurements would be so contentious.

The three main demands by Young Friends of the Earth are now as follows:

1. Achieve a binding commitment by Annex I countries for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 40% by 2020 and 100% by 2050.

2. Address Climate Justice. Climate change solutions should not jeopardise developing countries growth.

3. Promote genuine renewable energy solutions . Our definition of renewable energy does not include nuclear, agro-fuels or large hydro.

I attended an interesting Side Event by Greenpeace on their proposal for an Energy Revolution. Their concrete proposal calculated that the target of 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere can be acheived through deployment of renewable energy. However the speaker recognised that to acheive the target of 350ppm (to have a good chance of avoiding the climate tipping point) there would need to be 40% less transport. The information was not comforting to say the least. However it was promising to hear that renewables are already cheaper than new coal in the long run. This shows how important it is that infrastructure development takes the right path. The Greenpeace speaker also criticised the top-down planning of the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and suggested something like a feed-in law for developing countries could be more effective.

Later, the Global Environmental Facility side event (with great refreshments and t-shirts) gave information about technology transfer. The speaker from India said there were some issues about licensing and intellectual property, but these were avoided by having a subsidiary company in India and conducting R & D there. Patenting issues may be more difficult for other countries. Another issue is that tech transfer may require knowledge about maintenance otherwise projects will fail in the long term.

Phew... it was a long day. However I did manage to speak to 2 UK delegates. In the corridor, I briefly spoke to a DEFRA member who informed me most of the UK policies for the negotiations were set a few weeks ago. The UK Youth delegation had already spoken to the Chief of Negotiations and heard that UK Policy often comes under that of the EU. However, the EU policy is not set in stone. Infact the 'Fossil of the Day' Award (given by the NGO CAN every day to the most obstructive country) was received by the European Union on Tuesday for 'coming to Poznan without a credible position on financing mitigation and adaption in the global South'!!

UN Climate Conference in Poznan

Tuesday 2nd December
After a 25-hour coach journey through Berlin, I arrived in Poznan, Poland on Monday 1st. Tuesday was exhausting; after registering, gathering materials, and finding the NGO and delegation offices, we finally attended a reception in the EU Pavilion.
I attended one interesting Side Event on ''Carbon Capture and Storage''' organised by the European Commission. A representative from Shell promoted the benefits of CCS Technology, but another speaker admitted that the technology would not be able to contribute to emission cuts before 2020. Members of the audience were dubious, questioning whether there are enough geological sites to store captured CO2. Shell urged for EU funding to be available for demonstrations. I asked a question to the panel: whether limited resources and EU funding would not be better spent on renewable energy technologies that are already tried and tested? Unfortunately the representative from Shell misrepresented my question, and started talking about the economic climate. Another member of the audience questioned whether investing in CCS would tie us into fossil fuel consumption in building new coal plants, before the technology is even ready. The problem is that permission may be given for a new generation of coal plants that are ''capture ready'' with no guarantee that the technology will be fitted. This seems to be contentious subject. I noticed the EU Pavilion is hosting several events this week promoting CCS.
It was an interesting start to the week and fantastic to be in the atmosphere of the United Nations Conference. It was also interesting to see the delegation offices. Most developing countries do not have any designated office space, which contrasts with the large space for Europe and North America.