Sinister Encounter

On Thursday 10th December I had the displeasure of encountering “Lord Monckton” the internet-renowned climate denier, just after he had been hounding the US youth. It was a dramatic and unsettling experience.

I had heard that this self-aggrandised 'Lord' had been caught on camera the day before describing the environmental youth from the US as “Hitler Youth” (the footage can be found on youtube). This comment was clearly despicable and gives some indication of his own lack of integrity.

Despite this, I decided to approach him in the conference, just after he had been deliberately hassling a Professor from Copenhagen University who studies ice sheets. I quietly asked him; “Do you ever think about the future generations?” I cannot recall the whole conversation but it went something like this...

He replied to my question with a comment about biofuels, arguing that poverty in Africa had been made worse by the biofuels crisis. I replied by responding that I agreed that biofuels have so far caused problems; and asked again if he would please answer my question concerning sustainability.

During the conversation, he became quite livid and noticeably agitated. Camera's and press started popping up all around. I began to quiz him about climate science, during which time he argued he was “a scientist who had long-studied much research on climate science” and had accumulated research proving the climate was insensitive to greenhouse gases because of the “ocean buffer”. (Later on, I looked on his wikipedia page to note that he does not have training in science, in fact he studied Classics at Cambridge.)

Luckily, I have been revising climatic science for exams next week; so quickly remembered some facts about the other greenhouse gases – what about Nitrous Oxide and Methane? He stated that Methane concentrations have stabilised since 2000.

He also claimed that the temperature had increased by 3 degrees between 1600 and 1675 (he became confused later in the conversation and described this as a period of 40 years). At this exact moment, a youth delegate with a laptop brought up the IPCC climate graph, and the screen showed him the temperature change had been around 0.2C in this period. He looked noticeably embarrassed but quickly said; “Oh, but that is the hockey-stick graph which is obviously wrong”.

As the conversation continued, he appeared eager to persuade me to his point of view so I feigned interest. He spoke frantically, jumping from point to point, and shut out anyone else's comments, including my own, but seemed very keen to hear his own voice. He went on a long tirade about the methods used to collect data, including something about “measuring temperatures above the Amazon forest” from aeroplanes.

I asked him what he thought about renewable energy; and he argued that wind turbines “slice birds out of the sky”...“there is a website full of pictures”. I pondered whether his random opposition to wind turbines actually demonstrates his real agenda in support of fossil fuels (rather than having anything to do with climate change...).

Finally, I pointedly asked him; “Who was funding him to be at the Conference?” He immediately said that he was funding himself out of his own pocket. Then, I asked him whether he knew that a Petroleum lobbyist had previously influenced the climate reports in the USA. He said “I wrote to the New York Times about that... it was completely inaccurate”. I asked why he had felt the need to write to a newspaper in support of oil interests? Had they paid him to do that by any chance?

At this point, Monckton looked deeply uncomfortable and stuttered “oh, I can't remember what company it was, I thought it was a coal company”. (How funny, I wondered, that he could not remember....!)

It also makes me wonder also why he was specifically targeting the US Youth Climate campaigners.

What I found most troubling about my encounter with this odd man was that he was being followed by two young minions, who looked about 20 years old, with badges that said “Americans for Prosperity”. One of these minions had the most annoyingly smug expression I have ever seen in my life. The cameras dispersed, and so, immediately, did Monckton. There were thousands of young environmental campaigners at the conference. Yet seeing these few young 'anti-environmental' campaigners, who were there with Monckton, was deeply unsettling.

What I found mostly disturbing is that Monckton was claiming to speak on behalf of developing nations affected by biofuels. He was using this to feign an ethical standpoint. However, this is the same man that once wrote an article claiming that all people with AIDS should be segregated! Scary stuff. I am at a loss for words why some of 'trolls' on the internet actually believe him. They are using every PR trick and electronic medium they can to promote denial theories on the internet; which might indicate the kind of resources they have behind them.

Wednesday 9th December

On my second day at the Copenhagen conference, negotiations went into pure stalemate. The Plenary had to be suspended, because several developing countries (India and China) opposed the formation of a 'contact group' proposed by Tuvalu, to discuss commitments post-2012. After this, NGO observers found it difficult to access the plenary.

What was really occurring behind the scenes? Those who agree with the principle of “climate justice” would agree that it is completely unfair for developing countries to be forced to take on commitments, whilst developed countries have done virtually nothing themselves. Moreover, they continue to propose weak or non-existent targets. The whole situation seems a mess, unless Obama can get on board and sort it out, fossil-intensive 'laggards' like Canada and Australia will continue to hide behind the US. Then again, it is not really up to Obama, it is up to the Senate...

It will ultimately be up to Senators, like James Inhofe, who famously claimed that climate change is the “greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people”. What is immensely ironic about this is that Senators like Inhofe point out that the Kyoto Protocol had little impact on the environment. That is ironically true since the real climate impact of the Kyoto Protocol without US participation was to reduce emissions by ONLY 0.9% according to the CICERO study 2001 (Hagem and Holtsmark). There is also truth in the criticisms of carbon trading which point out the potential for fraud (as the recent 5Bn Euro fraud in the EU demonstrates). This is the real “scam” that is being perpetrated.

The greatest scam may yet be uncovered; I believe it is the promotion of the idea that the economy and environment are 'at odds' with one another, when nothing could be further from the truth. Our economy and prosperity depends entirely on the underlying environmental resources. Moreover, renewable energy and energy efficiency have the potential to increase the well-being of the whole population. Renewable energy technology will pay for itself after a number of years, so when it is mass produced and decentralised, people will have much lower energy bills and be less dependent on the central energy companies. However; fossil-fuel companies appear to be actively discrediting the new technologies & renewable energy, to keep us hooked... (Watch the documentary: 'Who killed the electric car''). Most energy efficiency measures can be made with a fast payback time of 1-2 years. Eventually, business might get around to doing the maths and promoting clean energy, but by then it might be too late.

African civil society argues for only one degree of warming

Shortly after entering the Copenhagen Conference at COP 15 today, we were confronted by the prospect of a 'Danish text' that has been floating around. The text is utterly weak and would undermine all the previous negotiations on the LCA text.

The Danish text is dangerous and considerably weaker because; it does not include the target of 1.5 degrees as an option, and only mentions 2 degrees. It does not refer to indigenous people's rights. It includes the possibility of forests being included in carbon markets and becoming another loophole in mitigation commitments. There is also no reference to 350ppm as the ultimate stabilisation target (which is essential according to James Hansen at NASA). We need all these elements in the final LCA text; by comparison the Danish text is useless.

As I was sitting there considering these texts, the corridors of the COP 15 erupted into a protest by African Civil Society. There was chanting of "suicide" and a flood of press and security personnel formed around the protesters, in front of the main Plenary. We managed to speak to an NGO member from Kenya as he was being interviewed by SABC News.

"We must keep warming to one degree" - Umuro Godana, executive director of PISP argued. He argued the IPCC Report AR4 was very clear that even 0.8 degrees above current levels will have devastating impacts on Africa. He stated that "2 degrees of warming effectively means 4 degrees for Africa", so while 'two degrees' might be suitable for Western countries, it is not for African countries and many Island States. He repeated the call for a fair deal at Copenhagen, and that it could be better to have no deal than a useless deal.

However, it is difficult to say whether the world is already committed to a certain amount of warming; perhaps 0.6 degrees (according to NASA) which just demonstrates the already urgent need for agree on finance for developing countries, plus an agreement to halt emissions. We must remain positive and insist on the fact that survival is not negotiable.

Climate change and uncertainty

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The recent email hacking at CRU has highlighted the fact that there is always an element of uncertainty in science, especially in such a massively complex project as climate modelling. If scientists were actually attempting to keep certain papers out of the peer-reviewed process, that would have been unscientific. They might have plausibly done this out of an attempt to reduce the uncertainty in the balance of evidence, due to the severity of the issue, perhaps under a misguided assumption that politicians do not cope well with uncertainty... However, we must remember that all politicians must be guided by the precautionary principle; which was sensibly agreed on at Rio in 1992. When the potential consequences of inaction are so globally catastrophic, we would definitely do well to be cautious and avoid them. Ask yourself - if you knew there was a 50% chance of dying when you crossed a road, would you cross it? Politicians have to consider these kind of complex risk probabilities, as we all do in everyday life.

The AR4 Report by the IPCC actually contains many statements instructing the lead authors to exercise caution in the careful use of language to communicate uncertainty. The experts were reminded to consider 'groupthink', and I quote; “be aware of a tendency for a group to converge on an expressed view and become overconfident”. Moreover, experts were told to use careful and cautious judgement in explaining ranges; “If you cannot be confident in the range, use a less precise approach””. The lead authors were also instructed to “use neutral language” and “avoid value laden statements”. Thus, there were firm safeguards on the expression of uncertainty in the IPCC Report. Despite these safeguards, the definitive conclusion was that there was more than a 90% certainty that global warming is anthropogenic.

The Saudi Arabian comment at COP 15, calling for a re-assessment of climate science, is beyond ridiculous. The fact that Saudi Arabia the world's largest oil reserves makes their argument completely transparent. Their comment on this matter just highlights that the email “hack” was a strategic move to derail the climate change negotiations. Support for climate scepticism by Saudi Arabia merely undermines the validity of the 'climategate' position, by showing that those with interests attempt to generate and promote this discussion. The Saudi's would be better off asking for finance than making these comments; since making that comment simultaneously undermined their request for finance.

Also consider this simple thought experiment; what is the worst that could happen if we shift to a lower carbon economy? We would lower our energy bills and transfer over to renewable energy (which humanity will have to do eventually anyway). Moreover, we conserve the oil we have left for plastics and pharmaceuticals, prolonging this valuable resource. What is the worst that could happen if we do nothing and anthropogenic climate change occurs as predicted? Along with potential tipping points and positive feedback mechanisms... the consequences hardly bear thinking about..........